Making Sense of the Coming AI IPOs

Clients have been asking a version of the same question lately: should I buy Anthropic when it lists? Is OpenAI the next Nvidia? Am I missing out if I wait?

Fair questions. Anthropic filed confidentially with the SEC on June 1, 2026, and OpenAI announced its own filing a week later. Either could come to market near a trillion dollar valuation.

The offering that just happened is instructive. SpaceX listed in June at $135 a share, reached $225.64 within days, and traded at $115.19 by July 22, roughly 49% below its peak. Anyone who bought at the offering, at the open, or on the way up was underwater within six weeks.

That is not unusual. Across more than 9,000 IPOs going back to 1980, roughly 60% of newly public companies were worth less three years after listing than at their first closing price.

Worth reading

Atlas Point published a white paper that works through this in detail. It covers:

• What happened with the SpaceX listing, and why
• What we actually know about Anthropic and OpenAI so far, and what remains unknown
• Decades of research on how IPOs have performed, including how profitability and valuation at the offering affected outcomes
• Why the first day gains mostly go to institutions rather than individual investors
• How to think about whether a new offering belongs in a portfolio

Read the white paper: Making Sense of the Coming AI IPOs

Our take

None of this means AI is uninvestable. It means the decision belongs inside a plan rather than in response to a headline.

There is rarely a need to act on day one. A confidential filing is not a listing, and waiting for real financials replaces speculation with information. Position size matters more than timing. And most diversified portfolios already hold the established companies building AI, so it is worth checking what you own before adding more.

The more useful question is not how to get in. It is whether owning this company advances your long term plan, and whether this is a sensible price and time to begin.

If you have been thinking about these offerings, or would like to review how much technology exposure your portfolio already carries, we are happy to walk through it with you. Schedule a call or reach out at info@chromeadvisors.com.